I was in SF yesterday and there are Waymo vehicles all over the city. (I also saw one Amazon self driving car on the road) But the Waymo rollout was not smooth in the beginning. There were lots of problems and the roll out was a lot like the Cyber Taxi rollout in the first days. Let’s give the Tesla team time and see where this goes. I think given time it will be as good as the other offerings.
One of the closest analogies to the errors scene in the limited supervised robotaxi launch in Austin, are some of the mission critical errors we saw with GM's Cruise.
GM burned so many billions on something and failed so publicly that they had to quit. It's not rational for Tesla to even consider pretending it can lead or even be in this race. At a certain point the investment doesn't justify the failure and execution of the product.
Michael—thank you for the analysis and clear article—very insightful. (Just a suggestion, in future articles use your evidence to ask more questions with open ends. Declarative opinions (especially personalized ones) seem more like political bias than critical analysis.).
I don’t disagree with your general points—camera only has been a Betamax vs VHS (LiDAR) battle for a long time. It seems part of the effort (by Tesla company) to prove camera only is so that exclusive patents can be used to control or dominate the market for AVs. I too question whether this technology or the apparent strategy will ever work. Hopefully the safety will someday match human drivers—but at this point (at this moment) it doesn’t look promising—seems more like tossing the keys to a Cro-Magnon or a Neanderthal technology. (Recall ‘the gods must be crazy’ N!xau (Namibian bush farmer) driving a jeep for the first time—hilarious.)
All of these comments don't seem to actually talk about anything that is in the article. So who is being political after all? This isn't about me - this is about a robo taxi launch event that was a massive failure. With an owner of a social media platform that is trying to pretend otherwise.
Any useful analysis on any of the actual points made in the article?
I mean do you rationally think a launch with all those errors will lead to a successful product? The article is full of links. They are objectively like 4 to 6 years behind the industry leaders.
If the Austin test was supposed to be the Robotaxi product launch—I agree with you it was an obvious fail. That said, first time (or even twelfth time) failures can lead to eventual successful products—but it typically requires a significant change in approach. At the moment it doesn’t look like Tesla is going to make a significant change in approach—time will tell.
Yes the TAM, SAM, SOM is a big problem for Tesla as a late arrival (if we assume this was an actual product arrival). The SOM is quickly vanishing under their feet—so little of the AV market will be addressable for them that there will be very low to non-existent obtainable market percentage. Does this mean Teslas AV venture is irreparably doomed?
Tesla could change this with a different strategy—we will see if they do.
Really nice analysis. Just wanted to add that VW is debuting, in partnership with its mobility startup (Moia), an autonomous van (the ID. Buzz). The interesting approach is that they will sell this vehicle together with a software solution, in what they are calling Mobility as a Service.
Moia will start operating these autonomous vehicles in public test runs this summer in Hamburg, where I live.
Thought-provoking article, but with some of the repetitive points, it feels as if either largely assisted writing by AI or as if you have some bias against Elon or Tesla (which may make some question the overall insightful commentary). I do not own any Tesla stock. I do have a FSD Tesla and overall have found the FSD to be solid; BUT it does occasionally does make some errors which can be scary — definitely not ready for truly driverless IMO.
Lol, good point. I could have obviously ran your article to check if AI-written (but did not). My comment was more directed at the earlier person who called this “a hit piece” because I don’t think that was the intention, but with some of the repetitive points/beat-down, it might seem like that to some with a Tesla/Elon positive bias and thus be less open to consider your points.
Fsd is fantastic. I love it. It’s absolutely life changing. I’m disappointed to see another Verge style hit piece who doesn’t try to understand the whole company. You even quoted the verge, my goodness. This is below your normal quality, by a lot.
Tell me Buddy about the whole company? Tell me about the CEO who's into politics and the declining sales? What's your counter for any of this that's rational and detailed?
If Tesla is not a tech company (given the failure of this Robotaxi angle), a car manufactur like GM has a PE of 7.00. Tesla's current PE is 185 with declining sales! Are robots Tesla's last hope to stay relevant? If BYD and Chinese EV makers were allowed to sell in the U.S. with real free market principles how do you suppose Tesla would fare?
Tesla has 125k employees with a failing brand. The stock has a Forward P/E of 110. Not just losing market share to BYD but at least six other Chinese EV makers.
After Trump Administration tariffs and Elon Musk's political behaviors, Tesla has no future in Germany, most of Europe or Canada.
So where does it sell its cars? Tesla sales in California have experienced a significant decline in the first quarter of 2025, with a 15% drop compared to the same period in 2024. This decline has resulted in Tesla's market share in the state's EV market falling below 50% for the first time.
Now poor performance of the Robotaxis launch? The stock is suffering even in an AI driven bull market. No a great sign.
I follow Elon building the largest AI syndicate by horizontally integrating Optimus robots and Tesla machines and Starlink and the X platform and using all of this data to have a better deterministic understanding of the world than anyone else.
Great post. As the owner of a cameras-only Tesla I can vouch that the decision to remove radar and LiDAR sensors was a massive fail. Cameras are massively weather dependent.
Thank you for sharing Graham. What sorts of weather conditions do you feel impact their performance? Is there any technical work around? Is FSD still worth owning for a sunny temperate location?
Mostly rain, which we Brits endure! But a dirty windscreen and dirt on cameras is a constant issue. Park assist often fails for these reasons, plus wipers suddenly start going on a dry day. We don’t have FSD but in autopilot it will suddenly break when seeing a traffic cone or a crossing hatched line on the road. We had to wait months for the cameras download after buying our Tesla … before that we had to resort to a passenger getting out the car to direct into parking spaces!
Tesla will be fine. Superior technology and management. Hit pieces, food for haters, will not matter in the long run.
Wow, so much disinformation! This must be some kind of sick job. Shame on you!
Again, Tesla should have followed through on the phone that was slated for December 2022 instead of the horrendous Cyber"truck", etc.
I was in SF yesterday and there are Waymo vehicles all over the city. (I also saw one Amazon self driving car on the road) But the Waymo rollout was not smooth in the beginning. There were lots of problems and the roll out was a lot like the Cyber Taxi rollout in the first days. Let’s give the Tesla team time and see where this goes. I think given time it will be as good as the other offerings.
One of the closest analogies to the errors scene in the limited supervised robotaxi launch in Austin, are some of the mission critical errors we saw with GM's Cruise.
GM burned so many billions on something and failed so publicly that they had to quit. It's not rational for Tesla to even consider pretending it can lead or even be in this race. At a certain point the investment doesn't justify the failure and execution of the product.
Michael—thank you for the analysis and clear article—very insightful. (Just a suggestion, in future articles use your evidence to ask more questions with open ends. Declarative opinions (especially personalized ones) seem more like political bias than critical analysis.).
I don’t disagree with your general points—camera only has been a Betamax vs VHS (LiDAR) battle for a long time. It seems part of the effort (by Tesla company) to prove camera only is so that exclusive patents can be used to control or dominate the market for AVs. I too question whether this technology or the apparent strategy will ever work. Hopefully the safety will someday match human drivers—but at this point (at this moment) it doesn’t look promising—seems more like tossing the keys to a Cro-Magnon or a Neanderthal technology. (Recall ‘the gods must be crazy’ N!xau (Namibian bush farmer) driving a jeep for the first time—hilarious.)
Thank you again for the details on the test.
All of these comments don't seem to actually talk about anything that is in the article. So who is being political after all? This isn't about me - this is about a robo taxi launch event that was a massive failure. With an owner of a social media platform that is trying to pretend otherwise.
Any useful analysis on any of the actual points made in the article?
I mean do you rationally think a launch with all those errors will lead to a successful product? The article is full of links. They are objectively like 4 to 6 years behind the industry leaders.
If the Austin test was supposed to be the Robotaxi product launch—I agree with you it was an obvious fail. That said, first time (or even twelfth time) failures can lead to eventual successful products—but it typically requires a significant change in approach. At the moment it doesn’t look like Tesla is going to make a significant change in approach—time will tell.
Yes the TAM, SAM, SOM is a big problem for Tesla as a late arrival (if we assume this was an actual product arrival). The SOM is quickly vanishing under their feet—so little of the AV market will be addressable for them that there will be very low to non-existent obtainable market percentage. Does this mean Teslas AV venture is irreparably doomed?
Tesla could change this with a different strategy—we will see if they do.
I think it's also worth mentioning that technology companies have contributed greatly to the decline of mainstream media.
Around this event on Twitter X, that Grok was sighting to me. It really is like an alternative media of factual and headline modification: https://www.theverge.com/tesla/694333/tesla-robotaxi-media-influencers-musk-fans
Really nice analysis. Just wanted to add that VW is debuting, in partnership with its mobility startup (Moia), an autonomous van (the ID. Buzz). The interesting approach is that they will sell this vehicle together with a software solution, in what they are calling Mobility as a Service.
Moia will start operating these autonomous vehicles in public test runs this summer in Hamburg, where I live.
I believe they’re using similar tech to Waymo
AI hit piece, “Ode to Confirmation Bias.” Go ahead folks, bet against Elon Musk. 🤡
Thought-provoking article, but with some of the repetitive points, it feels as if either largely assisted writing by AI or as if you have some bias against Elon or Tesla (which may make some question the overall insightful commentary). I do not own any Tesla stock. I do have a FSD Tesla and overall have found the FSD to be solid; BUT it does occasionally does make some errors which can be scary — definitely not ready for truly driverless IMO.
If I had to guess you used Gen AI to write this comment.
Lol, good point. I could have obviously ran your article to check if AI-written (but did not). My comment was more directed at the earlier person who called this “a hit piece” because I don’t think that was the intention, but with some of the repetitive points/beat-down, it might seem like that to some with a Tesla/Elon positive bias and thus be less open to consider your points.
Fascinating.
Fsd is fantastic. I love it. It’s absolutely life changing. I’m disappointed to see another Verge style hit piece who doesn’t try to understand the whole company. You even quoted the verge, my goodness. This is below your normal quality, by a lot.
Tell me Buddy about the whole company? Tell me about the CEO who's into politics and the declining sales? What's your counter for any of this that's rational and detailed?
If Tesla is not a tech company (given the failure of this Robotaxi angle), a car manufactur like GM has a PE of 7.00. Tesla's current PE is 185 with declining sales! Are robots Tesla's last hope to stay relevant? If BYD and Chinese EV makers were allowed to sell in the U.S. with real free market principles how do you suppose Tesla would fare?
Tesla has 125k employees with a failing brand. The stock has a Forward P/E of 110. Not just losing market share to BYD but at least six other Chinese EV makers.
After Trump Administration tariffs and Elon Musk's political behaviors, Tesla has no future in Germany, most of Europe or Canada.
So where does it sell its cars? Tesla sales in California have experienced a significant decline in the first quarter of 2025, with a 15% drop compared to the same period in 2024. This decline has resulted in Tesla's market share in the state's EV market falling below 50% for the first time.
Now poor performance of the Robotaxis launch? The stock is suffering even in an AI driven bull market. No a great sign.
"the demise of Tesla is inevitable"
How do I take this bet Michael?
We should do a bet based on market cap.
Do you follow global EV sales Matt?
No 🙂↔️
I follow Elon building the largest AI syndicate by horizontally integrating Optimus robots and Tesla machines and Starlink and the X platform and using all of this data to have a better deterministic understanding of the world than anyone else.
Mars in 2027 …. Good luck with that one fanboy 🤣🤣🤣
Wow, you did go full-on 10 gallons of Kool-aid there. Oof
Great post. As the owner of a cameras-only Tesla I can vouch that the decision to remove radar and LiDAR sensors was a massive fail. Cameras are massively weather dependent.
Thank you for sharing Graham. What sorts of weather conditions do you feel impact their performance? Is there any technical work around? Is FSD still worth owning for a sunny temperate location?
Mostly rain, which we Brits endure! But a dirty windscreen and dirt on cameras is a constant issue. Park assist often fails for these reasons, plus wipers suddenly start going on a dry day. We don’t have FSD but in autopilot it will suddenly break when seeing a traffic cone or a crossing hatched line on the road. We had to wait months for the cameras download after buying our Tesla … before that we had to resort to a passenger getting out the car to direct into parking spaces!