The Fed: AI and Coder Employment: Compiling the Evidence, March, 2026.

Good Morning, everyone

Thank you for supporting this publication. This is my primary income and I do my best to help you stay informed and keep you stimulated about AI at the intersection of business, society, technology and the future. The usual time the Newsletter goes out is 05:30 AM EST. However this can vary, more so in the Spring and Summer months.

I want to continue our visual tour of some of my favorite infographics and updates of the AI Index report, as well as other things related to the U.S. labor market, macro, geopolitical, the economy, future of jobs, GenZ trends, and related interests, primarily in infographic form.

To read the first issue of this series, go here.

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The Federal Reserve just put a number on something developers have been experiencing for two years. A new study by Fed economists Leland D. Crane and Paul E. Soto found that employment growth among U.S. programmers dropped roughly 50% after ChatGPT launched in November 2022. Before that, programming-intensive jobs were growing at around 5% annually—well above the overall labor market.

Why Infographics

The Daily Spark by Apollo by Torsten Slok is another of my favorite sources for economic and macro infographics. What you find is not all Economists are honest in their incentives. The bifurcation of young people, post graduate entry level employment and AI really has me worried. It’s not the concerns you find in VC AI reports or Academic instructions with affiliations with BigTech. That’s part of the story I refuse to not tell. Infographics can quickly help orient ourselves among multiple data points that converge across spectrums of tech, economics and the future of jobs.

Because I want to do my best to display balanced coverage including some contrarian and skeptical insights that are purely my own and aligned with my own conceptual frameworks, this format of curation favors that.

Why so Anxious? AI is causing systemic division

AI can destabilize a consumer based economy, weaken democratic values and continue to warp Neo Capitalism, and it looks problematic for social unrest, wealth inequality and general rule of law. So why is that?

What happens if a kind of AI populism rises against the AI revolution? There’s a significant disconnect between Silicon Valley, Washington and the general population and real citizens, consumers and young people on this. Axios had this paragraph that stopped in me in my tracks: (I’m going to start a bit critical and realistic but I’ll eventually get to the AI Index part).

“Half of Americans are more concerned than excited about the use of AI, according to Pew, and Gen Z’s excitement about the technology sits at 22%, according to Gallup.”

It’s not just an AI paradox, it’s a legitimate AI risk that I’ve not seen Think Tanks and AI policy academics report on much. Bottom up consensus on AI is starting to form, and it’s contrary to what a lot of Executives, elites and BigTech lobbying has been suggesting. It’s this National divide in the U.S. with regards to the benefits and risks of AI that most concerns me.

But Something is not Right…

The more exposed we are to an Internet of AI slop (AIS) and even the potential of career ladder disruption, the less happy young people are starting to be with regards to their trust and hope that AI will bring a better world.

GSV Ventures and the Walton Family Foundation, Gallup

There’s a point where digital well-being plummets and the affordability crisis starts to impact youth unemployment and the way a culture sees its future with the prospect of AI. A Generative AI that’s not creating meaningful jobs, opportunities and is clearly weakening democracy. This isn’t a warped kind of AI populism, this is AI impacting the very human condition it’s supposed to be empowering, enhancing and augmenting.

We know that the Trump Administration created Energy Crisis with its attack on Iran with Israel is going to meaningfully increase inflation.

When inflation goes up, returns in public markets go down — Torsten Slok, Periods of higher inflation are associated with weaker returns in the S&P 500 and the IG and HY indexes, consistent with a policy backdrop of elevated interest rates that restrain risk-taking, see chart above. Source.

Eight weeks into the 2026 conflict (Operation Epic Fury), the global economic data suggests that the "disinflation" trend seen in early 2026 has been reversed. This should also worry those young graduates who are struggling to find entry level work in their industry because U.S. Administration policies and possibly even AI are pressing down their opportunities to participate in the labor force.

Why are Americans growing weary of AI?

How Americans view AI is deteriorating rapidly in 2026. Drawing on five years of Pew Research Center surveys - I believe the low consumer sentiment on the economy is seemingly being paired with the AI boom, in a K-shaped economy.
As of late 2025, 50% of U.S. adults feel more concerned than excited about AI’s increased use in daily life, while only 10% are primarily excited. As journalism is being eroded and VC-media is on the rise, if you follow LinkedIn or Twitter/X you’d think it’s a lot higher than those 10% who are excited. The American internet is no longer reflecting reality to such an extent GenZ are beginning to leave the legacy apps that started the internet.
The discontent around AI could signal the fall of the legacy U.S. advertising based internet.
A rise in AI anxiety stems from multiple issues, including degraded work opportunities. 18% of workers now believe it is "very or somewhat likely" their job will be eliminated by AI within the next five years, up from 15% in mid-2025. Anthropic, OpenAI or Microsoft making dire predictions isn’t helping and feels particularly tone dear and particularly harmful to the actual experience of people.

Got to give Tim Cook some Credit for Apple Management

Steve Jobs was a tough act to follow but Tim Cook did as well as anyone could have expected. Let’s give credit where credit is due though, Tim Cook’s legacy is being cemented as one of the most successful corporate stewardships in history. Essentially, Cook transformed Apple from a "disruptive hardware company" into a resilient, $4 trillion global powerhouse. Take a bow.

Apple CEO Tim Cook Is Stepping Down | WIRED — Wired

AI Supremacy

Summary of the AI Index Report 2026, Part II

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