Mythos, BigAI, Datacenters and Bottlenecks
IPO Hype to AI's impact on jobs: An Early 2026 Datacenter related roundup.
Good Morning,
Today I actually want to talk about Datacenters, but there are some digital airwaves AI news to cover first. This is going to be a lot of curation and a lot of infographics but a measure of the State of AI as it is today, including AI Infra gridlock that seems to have a media ban. This kind of content takes me hours and hours to compile but is meant to be nibbled on. So bookmark it for weekend reading if it’s your style.
Anthropic’s latest model Mythos is getting a lot of scrutiny (okay fine, outlandish praise) as a massive “step-up” in model capability in coding and reasoning. We now leave behind the “Opus” family of models for Capybara models that are bigger and more capable. Anthropic released a Mythos System Card Preview that’s fairly interesting.
Mythos Models are so good they are Dangerous
Anthropic has developed a New Protocol for Releasing Models in a more Safe way: Project Glasswing
In essence, Anthropic's new model, Claude Mythos, is so powerful that it is not releasing it to the public. Instead, it is starting a 40-company coalition, Project Glasswing, to allow cybersecurity defenders a head start in locking down critical software.
Anthropic’s Revenue (ARR) Surges in Early 2026
This as Anthropic’s ARR has hit $30 Bn. and is about to overtake that of OpenAI. The following are true stories:
Anthropic added the combined ARR of Palantir, Anduril, and Databricks—in one month. (via Lenny) - we had said 2026 would be a key year for Anthropic’s growth overtaking that of OpenAI.
Between February and April Anthropic went from $19B in February to $30B in March, 2026.
Anthropic’s revenue grew 30x in 15 months.
Said another way: They added $6B in ARR just in *February*. Companies like Palantir and Atlassian took 15-20 years to reach ~$5B ARR. Anthropic is adding that every month. (Lenny).
Anthropic dominates Enterprise AI and that lead is accelerating. It now has 1,000 companies spending $1M+ each. A figure which doubled in under two months.
Anthropic by having the top AI coding model displayed around 1000% CAGR over the last 2.5 years.
Visualize It
The revenue growth at both Anthropic and Cursor demonstrate that vibe-working might have a sustainable future. Curiously OpenAI, Google and neither Microsoft or Meta are really in the picture. Anthropic’s Enterprise AI revenue began to step up just as their coding models have.
I think it was Claude 3.5 Sonnet that changed everything and established Anthropic as SOTA in coding. A bigger impact that even GPT-4 if you look at it historically many years from now. By the time Opus 4.0 was released, Claude Code was released in May, 2025 and Claude Cowork in January, 2026.
SOTA Opus Models, Claude Code and Claude Cowork changed everything. Who even knows what Mythos can unlock?
Sam Altman Exposé Goes Viral
New Yorker bombshell exposes OpenAI's Sam Altman as untrustworthy manipulator.
Why read this? The New Yorker published an 18-month investigation into Sam Altman. The conclusion, from his own former leaders: he cannot be trusted.
Not news to us, but with looming IPOs it’s a problem for the AI ecosystem and AI bubble. OpenAI needs to change leadership, or risk everything! Both Sam Altman and Elon Musk are reputational risks to their companies now.
AI and Jobs
The Forecasting Research Institute completed what they call the most comprehensive study of how economists and AI experts think AI will affect the U.S. economy.
A majority of respondents anticipate significant advances in AI capabilities by 2030 with relatively stable historical trends for jobs and the labor market. That is, they predict major AI progress—but no dramatic break from economic trends in the next two decades: similar GDP growth rates to today, and a moderate decline in labor force participation.
What stood out to me? Labor Force Participation (LFPR): Under rapid progress, the LFPR is projected to drop from roughly 62% to 55% by 2050. Way more gradual than more biased economic reports insinuate.
Average Probability of AI Scenarios by 2030
I like how they modeled things: (although still a bit skewed to the Tech optimistic side). Nearly everyone is skewed to the AI optimism side now.
Helium Strait of Hormuz Bottleneck Intensifies
This is awkward?
Helium prices have skyrocketed since the start of the Iran war.
Qatar, which supplies a third of the world’s helium, has had production disrupted.
Helium is a critical input for industries like semiconductors, healthcare, and aerospace.
This so-called cease-fire notwithstanding, Helium’s impact to the semiconductor supply-chains is causing HBM prices to rise suddenly faster.
The semiconductor, medical-imaging, and aerospace sectors all rely on helium as a crucial component.
A third of the world’s helium is (was?) trapped. Qatar is the source of 34% of global helium supply. I’m fairly pessimistic about Trump’s ability to get a deal done with Iran and consider the Iran war a major threat to the AI bubble.
Helium prices are skyrocketing: early reports cited a 50% spike in the early going of the war, while more recent estimates say helium has doubled since late February.
Helium is as far as the Iran War and the semiconductor supply chain goes: as close to a “fundamental physical constraint” as we can get.
Qatar Energy announced in March it was halting production of liquefied natural gas and "associated products" following attacks on its facilities in Ras Laffan and Mesaieed. A 2-week ceasefire doesn’t change this, or anytime soon.
