Hey Everyone,
Considering Google’s lack luster February 8th event and the bad press around Bard’s error in an Ad, it’s looking like Microsoft’s Prometheus deserves another look. While OpenAI have yet to officially announce GPT-4, expected around May, 2023 I think we can assume when Microsoft talks about “next-gen AI” in its products, it is actually referring to Generative Pre-trained Transformer 4 which Microsoft has (or will soon have) early access to.
This is the mostly likely and the common sense conclusion to come to, while nobody has come out and actually said it quite yet for what it is. But more on this in a bit…
“AI will fundamentally change every software category, starting with the largest category of all – search,” said Satya Nadella, Chairman and CEO, Microsoft.
Google is overly dependent on advertising and in that category, way overly dependent on Search Advertising. So even if Bing were to take a few percent of the market share with Prometheus, it will amount to several $Billions of Search Ad revenue, enough to recoup its investment in OpenAI over time.
Google generated $224 billion (almost 80% of its total revenues) from ads (Google Search, YouTube Ads, and Network sites), in 2022 and owns about an 84% marketshare of Search. Google’s net Search Advertising revenue might be under threat, and the GPT-4 component of Prometheus is Microsoft’s super-power here.
Source: Statista
While Alphabet is seen as an A.I. native company, it’s mostly at the service of its existing products based around search and features that enhance search and its February 8th event was just full of those sorts of somewhat dull product update presentation things.
The Search A.I. Wars and the Contest for A.I. Supremacy in Advertising
But in recent years Amazon, TikTok (ByteDance) and Apple, Microsoft and others are starting to make headway in the ultra competitive digital advertising cash-cow ecosystem. That Google uses its A.I. to keep its monopoly, is now in 2023 and 2024 going to finally and quickly get tested, for the first time in a decade.
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Introducing Microsoft Prometheus powered by GPT-4
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