Is Tesla the next Blackberry?
The elephant in the room is BYD. Has China's EV industry already won? How badly will a China trade war hurt Tesla sales?
When we think of AI Supremacy as in the AI race between China and the U.S., we need to also look at other related industries. In recent times I’ve been analyzing BYD vs. Tesla is greater detail.
If you aren’t a fan of Elon Musk, you might enjoy this read.
BYD is the carmaker on everyone’s lips at the moment and the chatter may be about to get even louder.
While Elon Musk has likely tarnished the Tesla brand due to his political ambitions (e.g. Europe, China, Canada), there’s a bigger story happening in the EV sector. China’s go-to-market supremacy. I think BYD exemplifies this the best in China’s EV sector now going global in 2025. Their subsidizing of the EV sector and subsequent rising global dominance from supply chain to battery tech, is a sign of things to come in areas like robotics and the semiconductor industry, among others. It should make American think tanks in Washington on technology very worried.
Kyle Chan calls this China's overlapping tech-industrial ecosystems. He argues that China’s manufacturing and supply-chain advantages now spread to EVs, batteries, lidar, drones, robotics, smartphones, AI. That is, China's progress across a range of overlapping industries creates a mutually reinforcing feedback loop (see infographic a bit further on).
BYD is just made Differently 🤯
China’s infrastructure and scaling capabilities are on full display with BYD’s aggressive global go-to-market risk taking and manufacturing prowess.
“BYD Zhengzhou factory will be bigger than San Francisco and 10x larger than the Tesla Gigafactory in Nevada”
[Trump’s MAGA tariffs on China are only fuel for Chinese Nationalism and Chinese consumers buying domestic makers over Tesla. The trading apocalypse beings on April 2nd, 2025. On April 2nd, significant changes are anticipated in the realm of tariffs as President Donald Trump implements a new strategy branded as "Liberation Day".]
China’s Weird Superpower: Go-to-Market Supremacy
I’m obsessed with this infographic and its implication for China’s long-term advantages on price, manufacturing, and global go-to-market capabilities to flood the global market with better price-to-value products in nearly any category (EVs, humanoid robots, smart phones, lower end semiconductors, etc…)
China’s industrial policy for the knowledge economy is becoming more sophisticated in the 2020s with a more long-term view on innovation.
Today’s guest contributor is a very talented China scholar and analyst in her own right,
of the Sinobabble Newsletter.Intro to the Newsletter: (in the author’s voice/words)
I’m a big fan of academics, analysts and scholars on China that talk about its innovation sector like
, , , , and so many others.Sign up to become a reader to Sinobabble:
Sinobabble Newsletter makes it easy to understand the politics and culture of China's past and present to anticipate its future.
Understanding China’s future in technology is important not just because of the looming tariffs trade wars but the increasing geopolitical uncertainty for investors, onlookers and analysts. The U.S. leadership position in global influence, manufacturing, technology and scaling global companies is at stake.
Good Reads
Red party, Blue part, East, West - it’s all coming to a head. 🏛️
The problem with China's Periphery
The consistency of the Chinese party-state
Ramblings about deglobalisation
Basic Thesis of why Tesla might be the next Blackberry
Tesla has experienced a significant decline in sales over the past months, particularly in Europe and China.
Elon Musk’s entry into politics and odd behavior in the Trump administration is tanking (hurting) Tesla’s brand.
BYD is out-competing Tesla on price, battery tech innovation, charging capabilities, manufacturing plants, go-to-market strategy, speed and execution.
BYD’s 5-min Charging
On March 17th, BYD unveiled a new super-charging EV tech, to build charging network in China.
The so-called “super e-platform” will be capable of peak charging speeds of 1,000 kilowatts (kW), enabling cars that use it to travel 400 km (249 miles) on a 5-minute charge.
This is a huge blow to Tesla’s future viability as a global leader in EVs. Charging speeds of 1,000 kW would be twice as fast as Tesla’s superchargers whose latest version offers up to 500 kw charging speeds. Fast-charging technology has been key to increasing EV adoption as it is seen to help assure EV drivers’ concerns over being able to charge their cars quickly.
BYD Earnings Updates
BYD’s stock in Hong Kong is up 52% YTD.
BYD reported net profit leapt 73.1% in the fourth quarter of 2024 to a record 15 billion yuan ($2.1 billion). Fourth-quarter revenue was up 52.7% at 274.9 billion yuan, the company said in a stock market filing.
For the whole of last year (2024), profit rose 34% to a record 40.3 billion yuan on revenue up 29%.
BYD’s total revenue climbing 29% to RMB 777 billion ($107 billion). This in 2025 is a major turning point in the EV sector of BYD beating Tesla in the global markets.
BYD vs. Tesla Lately
BYD's financial performance has allowed it to surpass Tesla in terms of annual revenue, achieving $107.2 billion in 2024, compared to Tesla's $97.7 billion.
BYD’s ambitious plans for service and charging infrastructure in Europe coupled with Tesla’s significant sales decline in Germany and Europe is I believe, a sign of things to come.
Tesla's February sales in Germany had plummeted by 76% due in part to Tesla CEO Elon Musk's extra-curricular, or should we say his non-Tesla related activities.
China is Tesla’s second biggest market where historically it sells over one third of its vehicles.
The Trump Administration’s ramping up of trade war antics and tariffs starting on April 2nd, could continue to see Tesla sales decline as a casualty of the times.
A world where Tesla becomes the next Blackberry story, is a universe where Elon Musk becomes a liability to his companies. You could make the argument that this has already occured mere weeks into the Trump Administration. In 2025 that unthinkable MAGA affiliation has occurred, and it only makes me more bearish on Tesla’s long and medium term prospects.
Elon Musk also appears to be abusing his position of power in the Trump Administration for commercial gain:
FBI launches Tesla threats task force: ‘This is domestic terrorism’
How do I even explain this? (it sounds like something out of Musk Watch)
I’m not even joking, the FBI has launched a new task force to investigate attacks targeting Tesla, the electric vehicle company headed by Trump administration DOGE chief Elon Musk. Elon Musk is so unpopular it’s leading to at least 80 recent reported cases of vandalism or arson of Tesla vehicles in the United States and Canada, in addition to peaceful protests at Tesla showrooms.
Tesla’s 2025 Momentum is Cold 🥶
Tesla's downward spiral is turning into a rout, with its share of European electric car sales falling by 58 percent in the first two months of this year. But it’s also a story about China’s EV expansionism into global markets and winning. That is, to add insult to injury, Chinese EV brands sold nearly 20,000 vehicles in Europe last month, far outpacing Tesla's 15,700 units. Due to Trump’s tariffs and statements that Canada will become the 51st state, there are also protests in Canada outside of Tesla dealership. You get the idea.
The sinobabble on the street is thus a tale of two EV giants. I won’t even get into Tesla’s concerning (abysmal?) saftey record.
Tesla’s stock is upheld on the promise of Robotaxis, but Elon Musk’s integrity is being questioned since Elon Musk has made several public promises regarding the development and deployment of Tesla's robotaxis throughout the years, yet many (all?) of these commitments have failed to materialize as intended.
BYD is Surging in its Domestic Market: China
The key point is that Tesla's China-made wholesale deliveries fell 49% in February to 30,688 vehicles, the lowest monthly figure since July 2022. As of March, 2025 BYD is showing a 161% year-on-year sales increase. Tesla’s is losing in its most important market. This is the real game-over indicator of why Tesla is the next Blackberry. BYD and China’s EV makers are going to beat Tesla on price, technology and quality and it will put all non-Chinese automobile manufacturing in a difficult position. The 2025 data suggests this is already happening.
But let’s turn to an expert on why this is!
By
, February, 2025. Please support the Newsletters of academics. Check out Edi’s Notes here.Edi has a PhD in Chinese History from City University of Hong Kong, and has lived in mainland China during her 20s. She is a China enthusiast and analyst of another order, who is interested in sharing deep insights into China that go beyond the headlines.
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China's EV industry has already won
The Chinese government had a plan to succeed – and the US helped it do it.
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