Fascinating, thank you for sharing. To extend: If past bubbles were driven less by technology, and more by easy credit, what would you say are the clearest signs that AI infrastructure is being funded sustainably (rather than “on margin”)?
The datacenters and models may be indispensable infrastructure by 2040, but the current equity and credit stack is what’s actually being stress‑tested in the next downturn.
Yes and who knows the computing paradigm we'll be using in 2040? Likely something totally different than LLMs and today's GPUs, not to mention new energy sources. We risk building all the infrastructure that depreciates rapidly due to GPUs becoming obsolete in 2 years. Can you imagine building something where 35 to 40% of the cost needs to be gutted every 3 years?
And yes, what happens when U.S. National debt and Datacenter debt converge sometime in the the early 2030s?
Fascinating, thank you for sharing. To extend: If past bubbles were driven less by technology, and more by easy credit, what would you say are the clearest signs that AI infrastructure is being funded sustainably (rather than “on margin”)?
The "Market" can be "wrong" for far longer than you can hold on!
Every bubble is built on credit and every bubble pops when credit can’t be repaid.
100% and that market realization seems always happen suddenly
The datacenters and models may be indispensable infrastructure by 2040, but the current equity and credit stack is what’s actually being stress‑tested in the next downturn.
Yes and who knows the computing paradigm we'll be using in 2040? Likely something totally different than LLMs and today's GPUs, not to mention new energy sources. We risk building all the infrastructure that depreciates rapidly due to GPUs becoming obsolete in 2 years. Can you imagine building something where 35 to 40% of the cost needs to be gutted every 3 years?
And yes, what happens when U.S. National debt and Datacenter debt converge sometime in the the early 2030s?
Recommended reading: the U.S. is racing to its Energy/Power bottleneck:
AI isn’t just a software race anymore. It’s an infrastructure race:
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2025-ai-data-center-ownership/
“Being right about the future doesn’t protect you if you finance it too early.”
Great piece.
Exactly; and so often the way!
Texas, we have a problem! Oracle's datacenter leases for OpenAI's "Stargate" comes to mind.
Great Historical
Perspective on
“Bubblollogy”
Actors change
Greed is the same
Always look for the influential shills. They're the canary in the coal mine!
The amount of capital this time around though, and how prolonged this build-out is likely to be I think might surprise some people.
When they are talking about building AI Infrastructure in space and in the deep sea, you have to wonder.