Good Morning,
This month full disclosure I’m having a family health issue, so I have less time for research and writing than my usual.
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Audio Version 🎧 19 min:44
Significant Macro Headwinds, October, 2026
Recently changes in the macro landscape have triggered renewed concerns over an AI bubble, monetization deficits, margin debt with dangerously rising yields compounded by circular vendor financing, circular financing among BigTech, and significant concentration worries that now nearly totally clouds the AI infra roll-out picture.
As I’m not a macro analyst, I asked Ayesha Tariq, CFA (see LinkedIn), who is a Dubai-based macroeconomic analyst, financial writer, and investment strategist to take a look at the prospects of an AI bubble given all of this recent pressure.
I hope you are in the mood for reading and understanding about how the big picture could impact the AI boom, Capex and the AI bull market.
MacroVisor
Global Macro & Financial Market insights. About section.
“MacroVisor takes a top-down view of markets, tracking the trend and cycle shifts that often show up in the macro data before they are fully priced. Our research is rigorous but accessible, written for investors who want to understand the story behind the numbers.”
I’m a huge fan of Ayesha’s Notes on the Substack app that help me keep up with the macro picture. More from the author:
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Meanwhile Joachim Klement the head market strategist at Panmure Liberum projects that the AI bubble will likely burst in 2027 or 2028, noting that heavy capital is flowing into resource-intensive frontier models. His thesis around local AI and small language models prevailing is super interesting. He’s joins a growing chorus of bears on the AI bubble and was recently on Bloomberg to explain his thesis.
MacroVisor (not a sponsor) is an independent financial research and strategy firm that specializes in global macroeconomics, thematic investing, and cross-asset class strategies in the UAE. This is based on Ayesha Tariq’s expertise of over 20 years working in the field. With higher bond yields globally the accounting for AI Infrastructure begins to look a lot more risky.
Rising Global Bond Yields
Driven by persistent inflationary pressures and seemingly heavy government debt issuance, bonds are rising at an alarming rate in the second half of 2026.
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Borrowed Time: How Rising Rates Reach the AI Build-Out
By Ayesha Tariq, CFA (Early October, 2026).