Excellent summary, Michael. I only disagree regarding the look of the new cab/taxi. Thankfully, it looks like a Tesla and has the same attractive styling lines that have made the cars such a hit.
With regards to turning the existing fleet into "robotaxis," that plan seems to be underway... sort of.
Last Friday, all Tesla drivers in the United States and Canada all received a complimentary upgrade to FSD on October 16th. This upgrade went into effect for all drivers of the Model 3, Model S, Model X and Model Y. Most users are receiving version 12.3.6, with some getting version 12.5.4. When I saw the upgrade on my screen, I accepted it. But, my first thought was: "Ah, Elon needs more training data."
As a I wrote about in my Substack on Saturday, the new version of FSD is still quirky. It tried to squeeze me between two 18-wheelers in order to get off the highway two exits early and take the long way to our destination. I "intervened," kept us in the correct lane, and put us back on route. Unfortunately, in a car with no steering wheel, no brake and no way to intervene, we would have gone between the two 18-wheelers. Fun!
On the way back home, the car slowed to the speed limit on a residential street, but didn't slow again for a mother and toddler in the roadway up ahead. Perhaps the cyberbrain determined this "road hazard" was clear of the wheels and could easily be passed. As a mother myself, I immediately intervened, slowly the vehicle to a crawl, and gave the two a respectfully wide berth. The mom gave me a grateful wave as we passed by. I would have been mortified if the car had not slowed- even the residential street speed limit would have been too fast in such a situation. These are purely human brain driving determinations that an L2 driving computer clearly cannot do.
I see no way Dojo can go from L2 to L5 in two years.
Would I get into a cybercab? No. For now, I believe we still need some kind of Human in the Loop. The current design allows none. I'm not going to take a nap, or watch a movie, (as Elon suggested), while my "ride" mows down pedestrians.
This is the first I'm hearing of people having to buy the robotaxis. I wonder if that's an attempt to get around the question of who is liable in the event of an accident. If the taxi is owned by someone instead of Tesla, is liability with the owner?
Do you really have more confidence in Rivian than Tesla? Rivian’s net losses are actually greater than its revenue. I wouldn't recommend this at all to your readers. You’ve raised some valid concerns about Tesla that every shareholder should consider, but don’t you think this is a bit of an exaggeration?
I'm not focused on his political views, but with such a large audience, it seems essential that he atleast tries to make an effort to be more objective. His lack of responsibility in how he manages his influence is concerning, especially given the potential impact his words can have on shaping public opinion.
Just another hit piece from guy who can only criticize rather than do. Its rather ironic to keep repeating that Elon will fail and its only a scam right after Starship 5 was caught. Elon (while late) is quite successful of doing what "experts" say is impossible.
So much of the article is superficial criticism. You'd think that the argument "that isn't hasn't been done before so it can't be done," would be laughed at by now. If you'd actually drive FSD 12.5, you'd see how awesome it is. If you can't see the difference between Waymo operating in pre mapped zones and Tesla running anywhere, maybe you need to look at first principals -- these other solutions are not scalable. You may also want to look at the massive cost difference between the approaches. PLEASE come back in two years and assess how your opinions have aged -- no one ever does that...
Honestly Dave, nothing much has changed in the Robotaxi narrative in the last two years itself. The stock is grossly overvalued if any fundamentals of reality are taken into consideration. It's not as if I'm some lone critic here the writing is on the wall: https://bradmunchen.substack.com/p/quick-note-teslas-current-autonomy?r=24r7n0
The Tesla bulls never use data or logic you'll notice.
"Tesla’s Robotaxi deception will go down as one of the biggest frauds in the history of corporate America." To be fair, far bigger frauds are Theranos and FTX—failures of character and product that impacted real people's lives—and in the case of FTX, life savings. If the robotaxi never happens I think we'll be alright.
How would you know? Have you read my paid work? Have you read the 4x a week articles of the last 3 years? Let me guess, you read the title of this post.
To be fair it is probably worth pointing out that Tesla is not the only car company suffering to the Chinese. All legacy automakers are too. All of them risk becoming only national companies for their home markets. The Chinese are dominating the international market and developing countries. The big loss (besides China) is Russia (over 400k units), but there is Norway, Brazil, Australia, and Pakistan and parts of Eastern Europe. GM and Ford may never sell another car in South America again, ever. Interestingly, the only car from a foreign company that the Chinese are buying is (you guessed it) Tesla. Model 3 really is that fine of a car at that price point, comparable to the 300 series of Lexus, BMW, Mercedes. Minus the leather interior, the synthetic material and simplicity is very well done in keeping with its sustainability theme.
VW and Tesla are both in significant trouble, that's why layoffs and lower sales are inevitable. The U.S. can cry national security at every street corner, but the Chinese should still be able to beat them in the important stuff like robotics, AI, and biotechnology in the next 20 years. The EV industry is just a tune up.
As much talent as they have, China will not be able to overtake every industry. For example, they have yet to find parity with semiconductor manufacture with over 2 years of effort. Their yield is not there. They have been unable to copy or reinvent ASML’s EUV laser. Hence they still buy whatever Nvidia has to offer. Also, it’s not China vs. US. It’s China vs the entire Global North. It’s ironic how we protested the formation of this “New World Order” from the 1990’s onward. The idea contradicts our passion for nationalism. But with the current era of massive industrialized countries of last-generational leaders having imperial aspirations, I hate to admit but this NWO thing is coming in handy.
With Elon involved in so many companies, what are the arguments for holding him solely accountable for the success and failures of each company? This may be an oxymoronic question, but humor me.
I mean Space X just achieved a remarkable feet, and neuralink is constantly pushing boundaries.
If one is to hold the man accountable for everything that happens in all companies, shouldn’t one look at where he’s actually spending his attention over any given time period?
SpaceX could endure, but most of his other companies have no hope of staying competitive or being major winners, have you looked into them? China has already basically cloned the basic technology of SpaceX. The best years of Elon Musk are behind him, and his reckless behavior is the sign of his falling star.
Saying China has copied something is like saying the Americans like cars, or we finns are quite people. Albiet, I’m curious to what the Chinese version of Space X is? Could you share that?
Not within my interest to dig into stocklisted companies and their performance. With Tesla betting on robots now it wouldn’t be surprising someone in the car side of things feels they are not as valued anymore and decides to jump ship.
Judging from Marcus Brownlee's video this morning, the Tesla engineers were tasked with developing the most efficient Robotic Taxi possible with current platform tools. Hence a streamlined coupe with narrow profile tyres. They also targeted no human in the loop, robotic cleaning (suicide doors, widest access) remote charging (Induction). Now this doesn't translate into a real city environments were 'cabs' are maximum space not efficiency ( see London Cab) so expect poor transition.
This was very informative and interesting. Musk doesn’t create anything!
Excellent summary, Michael. I only disagree regarding the look of the new cab/taxi. Thankfully, it looks like a Tesla and has the same attractive styling lines that have made the cars such a hit.
With regards to turning the existing fleet into "robotaxis," that plan seems to be underway... sort of.
Last Friday, all Tesla drivers in the United States and Canada all received a complimentary upgrade to FSD on October 16th. This upgrade went into effect for all drivers of the Model 3, Model S, Model X and Model Y. Most users are receiving version 12.3.6, with some getting version 12.5.4. When I saw the upgrade on my screen, I accepted it. But, my first thought was: "Ah, Elon needs more training data."
As a I wrote about in my Substack on Saturday, the new version of FSD is still quirky. It tried to squeeze me between two 18-wheelers in order to get off the highway two exits early and take the long way to our destination. I "intervened," kept us in the correct lane, and put us back on route. Unfortunately, in a car with no steering wheel, no brake and no way to intervene, we would have gone between the two 18-wheelers. Fun!
On the way back home, the car slowed to the speed limit on a residential street, but didn't slow again for a mother and toddler in the roadway up ahead. Perhaps the cyberbrain determined this "road hazard" was clear of the wheels and could easily be passed. As a mother myself, I immediately intervened, slowly the vehicle to a crawl, and gave the two a respectfully wide berth. The mom gave me a grateful wave as we passed by. I would have been mortified if the car had not slowed- even the residential street speed limit would have been too fast in such a situation. These are purely human brain driving determinations that an L2 driving computer clearly cannot do.
I see no way Dojo can go from L2 to L5 in two years.
Would I get into a cybercab? No. For now, I believe we still need some kind of Human in the Loop. The current design allows none. I'm not going to take a nap, or watch a movie, (as Elon suggested), while my "ride" mows down pedestrians.
This is the first I'm hearing of people having to buy the robotaxis. I wonder if that's an attempt to get around the question of who is liable in the event of an accident. If the taxi is owned by someone instead of Tesla, is liability with the owner?
Hi Micheal
Do you mind fixing this sentence please.
“The deal means WeRide’s robotaxis to the Uber platform starting in Abu Dhabi later this year. Meanwhile,”
It interrupts the readers flow, thought you might want to know.
Thanks
Thank you Simon, my work is certainly full of typos and poor grammar at times.
Do you really have more confidence in Rivian than Tesla? Rivian’s net losses are actually greater than its revenue. I wouldn't recommend this at all to your readers. You’ve raised some valid concerns about Tesla that every shareholder should consider, but don’t you think this is a bit of an exaggeration?
this dude obviously has massive anti-Elon bias. It's the new TDS, progressives are such wonderful people
I'm not focused on his political views, but with such a large audience, it seems essential that he atleast tries to make an effort to be more objective. His lack of responsibility in how he manages his influence is concerning, especially given the potential impact his words can have on shaping public opinion.
Rvaldy
Just another hit piece from guy who can only criticize rather than do. Its rather ironic to keep repeating that Elon will fail and its only a scam right after Starship 5 was caught. Elon (while late) is quite successful of doing what "experts" say is impossible.
So much of the article is superficial criticism. You'd think that the argument "that isn't hasn't been done before so it can't be done," would be laughed at by now. If you'd actually drive FSD 12.5, you'd see how awesome it is. If you can't see the difference between Waymo operating in pre mapped zones and Tesla running anywhere, maybe you need to look at first principals -- these other solutions are not scalable. You may also want to look at the massive cost difference between the approaches. PLEASE come back in two years and assess how your opinions have aged -- no one ever does that...
Good bot.
Honestly Dave, nothing much has changed in the Robotaxi narrative in the last two years itself. The stock is grossly overvalued if any fundamentals of reality are taken into consideration. It's not as if I'm some lone critic here the writing is on the wall: https://bradmunchen.substack.com/p/quick-note-teslas-current-autonomy?r=24r7n0
The Tesla bulls never use data or logic you'll notice.
Dave is a robot Michael...you are being Turing Tested by tesla spambots dude...
"Tesla’s Robotaxi deception will go down as one of the biggest frauds in the history of corporate America." To be fair, far bigger frauds are Theranos and FTX—failures of character and product that impacted real people's lives—and in the case of FTX, life savings. If the robotaxi never happens I think we'll be alright.
Interesting but quite editorialistic oriented newsletter. Good job anyway. Cheers
How would you know? Have you read my paid work? Have you read the 4x a week articles of the last 3 years? Let me guess, you read the title of this post.
To be fair it is probably worth pointing out that Tesla is not the only car company suffering to the Chinese. All legacy automakers are too. All of them risk becoming only national companies for their home markets. The Chinese are dominating the international market and developing countries. The big loss (besides China) is Russia (over 400k units), but there is Norway, Brazil, Australia, and Pakistan and parts of Eastern Europe. GM and Ford may never sell another car in South America again, ever. Interestingly, the only car from a foreign company that the Chinese are buying is (you guessed it) Tesla. Model 3 really is that fine of a car at that price point, comparable to the 300 series of Lexus, BMW, Mercedes. Minus the leather interior, the synthetic material and simplicity is very well done in keeping with its sustainability theme.
VW and Tesla are both in significant trouble, that's why layoffs and lower sales are inevitable. The U.S. can cry national security at every street corner, but the Chinese should still be able to beat them in the important stuff like robotics, AI, and biotechnology in the next 20 years. The EV industry is just a tune up.
As much talent as they have, China will not be able to overtake every industry. For example, they have yet to find parity with semiconductor manufacture with over 2 years of effort. Their yield is not there. They have been unable to copy or reinvent ASML’s EUV laser. Hence they still buy whatever Nvidia has to offer. Also, it’s not China vs. US. It’s China vs the entire Global North. It’s ironic how we protested the formation of this “New World Order” from the 1990’s onward. The idea contradicts our passion for nationalism. But with the current era of massive industrialized countries of last-generational leaders having imperial aspirations, I hate to admit but this NWO thing is coming in handy.
With Elon involved in so many companies, what are the arguments for holding him solely accountable for the success and failures of each company? This may be an oxymoronic question, but humor me.
I mean Space X just achieved a remarkable feet, and neuralink is constantly pushing boundaries.
If one is to hold the man accountable for everything that happens in all companies, shouldn’t one look at where he’s actually spending his attention over any given time period?
SpaceX could endure, but most of his other companies have no hope of staying competitive or being major winners, have you looked into them? China has already basically cloned the basic technology of SpaceX. The best years of Elon Musk are behind him, and his reckless behavior is the sign of his falling star.
Saying China has copied something is like saying the Americans like cars, or we finns are quite people. Albiet, I’m curious to what the Chinese version of Space X is? Could you share that?
Not within my interest to dig into stocklisted companies and their performance. With Tesla betting on robots now it wouldn’t be surprising someone in the car side of things feels they are not as valued anymore and decides to jump ship.
On the surfice of things and looking from afar Elons problem currently is he’s collecting hate at an unpresedented speed due to the fact he’s almost gone ”full political”, picking quite the controversial side when it comes to ”human progress” (wrote an opinion on that in Just Thoughts #21: https://nicolasdolenc.substack.com/p/just-thoughts-21-politics-and-sports?utm_source=publication-search)
He could do some ”spotlight detoxing” for a while, but that’s hardly ever been on his agenda.
Judging from Marcus Brownlee's video this morning, the Tesla engineers were tasked with developing the most efficient Robotic Taxi possible with current platform tools. Hence a streamlined coupe with narrow profile tyres. They also targeted no human in the loop, robotic cleaning (suicide doors, widest access) remote charging (Induction). Now this doesn't translate into a real city environments were 'cabs' are maximum space not efficiency ( see London Cab) so expect poor transition.
Young people are barely interested in driving, let along buying an ugly car without a steering wheel. What does MB know about the EV industry?
In an era where in the U.S. hybrids are becoming the first choice, it's obvious Chinese EV makers are spreading around the world the fastest.
Tesla's too vulnerable in China and Europe, it has little hope going forwards.
The U.S. is good at building monopoly winners but BYD is of another order.